Former Republican Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin said Wednesday that a brokered Republican presidential convention was a possibility and that if it happened she “would do whatever I could to help.”
Yesterday New Jersey Governor Chris Christie also was asked to speculate about how the nominating race would unfold:
The outspoken governor was dismissive of the idea of a brokered GOP national convention, saying members of the media are discussing the unlikely possibility simply because it’s their “dream come true” scenario.
Governor Christie’s conclusion is more on the mark: not only as to the unlikelihood of a brokered convention, but also as to the reasons for the current flurry of speculation.
Spoiler alert. A brokered convention simply isn’t going to happen.
We need to first keep in mind that this speculation is occurring at a time when roughly 225 out of 2286 delegates have been allocated. That’s less that 10%. Even allowing for a few superdelegates in the final mix, there are still a lot of delegates that will be chosen by upcoming direct primaries.
Yesterday we touched on how the race will narrow as we move further into the primary schedule. Fewer and fewer voters who actually turn out to vote in a primary are not going to waste their vote on someone who cannot win the nomination. In fact, the same media outlets that are speculating about a brokered convention will foreclose that possibility as they begin to anoint one candidate as the frontrunner. You can be sure that this is going to happen.
Whether this process is good for the country, and whether it is good for the Republican party, is a separate issue. More from Governor Christie:
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie hinted Tuesday that the Republican Party only has itself to blame for a drawn out primary process.
“The fact is, this is what the Republican Party rules set up. We decided to go from winner-take-all to proportional, and as a result, you’re going to have a much longer run here. … So the rules are working the way the rules were intended to work by the folks in the RNC. We voted against that rule, by the way, in New Jersey,” Christie told reporters at a press conference.
The Governor is referring to the proportional delegate selection rules that are currently dividing the delegate total between five candidates. The Democrats first adopted this rule for their 2008 presidential primary, and it was one of the reasons offered for why that race lasted far longer than the Republican nominating race.
Today, however, even with the proportional representation rule in effect, Romney has 105 delegates, Santorum has 71, and Gingrich has 29. Even if Romney or Santorum are denied a majority going into the convention (which is still unlikely given the aforementioned dynamics of upcoming races), there are several different ways that the conflict could be resolve before the convention.
What would be the point in a brokered convention, anyway? Don’t get me wrong, I am actually a fan of how our national convention system to work. However, the benefits of how the system used to work are all lost as soon as direct primaries are used, even in a preliminary way, to determine the candidate preference of primary voters.
And who would be the brokers? The answer to that question is even less clear. It would probably have to be either the third- or fourth-ranked candidate, who could swing a block of delegates and give one of the frontrunners a majority.
My point is that this race will be decided by the primaries, one way or another – and for better or for worse.
Hopefully we’ll have an occasion to delve into the deeper significance of direct primaries – and their negative effects – as this race continues.
In the meantime, thanks for reading.